Daily Papers

In the domain of medical imaging, many supervised learning based methods for segmentation face several challenges such as high variability in annotations from multiple experts, paucity of labelled data and class imbalanced datasets. These issues may result in segmentations that lack the requisite precision for clinical analysis and can be misleadingly overconfident without associated uncertainty quantification. We propose the PULASki for biomedical image segmentation that accurately captures variability in expert annotations, even in small datasets. Our approach makes use of an improved loss function based on statistical distances in a conditional variational autoencoder structure (Probabilistic UNet), which improves learning of the conditional decoder compared to the standard cross-entropy particularly in class imbalanced problems. We analyse our method for two structurally different segmentation tasks (intracranial vessel and multiple sclerosis (MS) lesion) and compare our results to four well-established baselines in terms of quantitative metrics and qualitative output. Empirical results demonstrate the PULASKi method outperforms all baselines at the 5\% significance level. The generated segmentations are shown to be much more anatomically plausible than in the 2D case, particularly for the vessel task. Our method can also be applied to a wide range of multi-label segmentation tasks and and is useful for downstream tasks such as hemodynamic modelling (computational fluid dynamics and data assimilation), clinical decision making, and treatment planning.

3D Morphable Models (3DMMs) provide promising 3D face reconstructions in various applications. However, existing methods struggle to reconstruct faces with extreme expressions due to deficiencies in supervisory signals, such as sparse or inaccurate landmarks. Segmentation information contains effective geometric contexts for face reconstruction. Certain attempts intuitively depend on differentiable renderers to compare the rendered silhouettes of reconstruction with segmentation, which is prone to issues like local optima and gradient instability. In this paper, we fully utilize the facial part segmentation geometry by introducing Part Re-projection Distance Loss (PRDL). Specifically, PRDL transforms facial part segmentation into 2D points and re-projects the reconstruction onto the image plane. Subsequently, by introducing grid anchors and computing different statistical distances from these anchors to the point sets, PRDL establishes geometry descriptors to optimize the distribution of the point sets for face reconstruction. PRDL exhibits a clear gradient compared to the renderer-based methods and presents state-of-the-art reconstruction performance in extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments. Our project is available at https://github.com/wang-zidu/3DDFA-V3 .

Distances between probability distributions that take into account the geometry of their sample space,like the Wasserstein or the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) distances have received a lot of attention in machine learning as they can, for instance, be used to compare probability distributions with disjoint supports. In this paper, we study a class of statistical Hilbert distances that we term the Schoenberg-Rao distances, a generalization of the MMD that allows one to consider a broader class of kernels, namely the conditionally negative semi-definite kernels. In particular, we introduce a principled way to construct such kernels and derive novel closed-form distances between mixtures of Gaussian distributions. These distances, derived from the concave Rao's quadratic entropy, enjoy nice theoretical properties and possess interpretable hyperparameters which can be tuned for specific applications. Our method constitutes a practical alternative to Wasserstein distances and we illustrate its efficiency on a broad range of machine learning tasks such as density estimation, generative modeling and mixture simplification.

Measuring geometric similarity between high-dimensional network representations is a topic of longstanding interest to neuroscience and deep learning. Although many methods have been proposed, only a few works have rigorously analyzed their statistical efficiency or quantified estimator uncertainty in data-limited regimes. Here, we derive upper and lower bounds on the worst-case convergence of standard estimators of shape distancex2014a measure of representational dissimilarity proposed by Williams et al. (2021).These bounds reveal the challenging nature of the problem in high-dimensional feature spaces. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a new method-of-moments estimator with a tunable bias-variance tradeoff. We show that this estimator achieves substantially lower bias than standard estimators in simulation and on neural data, particularly in high-dimensional settings. Thus, we lay the foundation for a rigorous statistical theory for high-dimensional shape analysis, and we contribute a new estimation method that is well-suited to practical scientific settings.

Entropy and its various generalizations are important in many fields, including mathematical statistics, communication theory, physics and computer science, for characterizing the amount of information associated with a probability distribution. In this paper we propose goodness-of-fit statistics for the multivariate Student and multivariate Pearson type II distributions, based on the maximum entropy principle and a class of estimators for Renyi entropy based on nearest neighbour distances. We prove the L2-consistency of these statistics using results on the subadditivity of Euclidean functionals on nearest neighbour graphs, and investigate their rate of convergence and asymptotic distribution using Monte Carlo methods.

The Sliced-Wasserstein distance (SW) is a computationally efficient and theoretically grounded alternative to the Wasserstein distance. Yet, the literature on its statistical properties -- or, more accurately, its generalization properties -- with respect to the distribution of slices, beyond the uniform measure, is scarce. To bring new contributions to this line of research, we leverage the PAC-Bayesian theory and a central observation that SW may be interpreted as an average risk, the quantity PAC-Bayesian bounds have been designed to characterize. We provide three types of results: i) PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds that hold on what we refer as adaptive Sliced-Wasserstein distances, i.e. SW defined with respect to arbitrary distributions of slices (among which data-dependent distributions), ii) a principled procedure to learn the distribution of slices that yields maximally discriminative SW, by optimizing our theoretical bounds, and iii) empirical illustrations of our theoretical findings.

Earthquakes are evaluated among the most destructive disasters for human beings, as also experienced for Turkiye region. Data science has the property of discovering hidden patterns in case a sufficient volume of data is supplied. Time dependency of events, specifically being defined by co-occurrence in a specific time window, may be handled as an associate rule mining task such as a market-basket analysis application. In this regard, we assumed each day's seismic activity as a single basket of events, leading to discovering the association patterns between these events. Consequently, this study presents the most prominent association rules for the earthquakes recorded in Turkiye region in the last 5 years, each year presented separately. Results indicate statistical inference with events recorded from regions of various distances, which could be further verified with geologic evidence from the field. As a result, we believe that the current study may form a statistical basis for the future works with the aid of machine learning algorithm performed for associate rule mining.

While the quality of novel-view images has improved dramatically with 3D Gaussian Splatting, extracting specific objects from scenes remains challenging. Isolating individual 3D Gaussian primitives for each object and handling occlusions in scenes remains far from being solved. We propose a novel object extraction method based on two key principles: (1) object-centric reconstruction through removal of irrelevant primitives; and (2) leveraging generative inpainting to compensate for missing observations caused by occlusions. For pruning, we propose to remove irrelevant Gaussians by looking into how close they are to its K-nearest neighbors and removing those that are statistical outliers. Importantly, these distances must take into account the actual spatial extent they cover -- we thus propose to use Wasserstein distances. For inpainting, we employ an off-the-shelf diffusion-based inpainter combined with occlusion reasoning, utilizing the 3D representation of the entire scene. Our findings highlight the crucial synergy between proper pruning and inpainting, both of which significantly enhance extraction performance. We evaluate our method on a standard real-world dataset and introduce a synthetic dataset for quantitative analysis. Our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art, demonstrating its effectiveness in object extraction from complex scenes.

Fair representation learning is an attractive approach that promises fairness of downstream predictors by encoding sensitive data. Unfortunately, recent work has shown that strong adversarial predictors can still exhibit unfairness by recovering sensitive attributes from these representations. In this work, we present Fair Normalizing Flows (FNF), a new approach offering more rigorous fairness guarantees for learned representations. Specifically, we consider a practical setting where we can estimate the probability density for sensitive groups. The key idea is to model the encoder as a normalizing flow trained to minimize the statistical distance between the latent representations of different groups. The main advantage of FNF is that its exact likelihood computation allows us to obtain guarantees on the maximum unfairness of any potentially adversarial downstream predictor. We experimentally demonstrate the effectiveness of FNF in enforcing various group fairness notions, as well as other attractive properties such as interpretability and transfer learning, on a variety of challenging real-world datasets.

To measure the difference between two probability distributions, referred to as the source and target, respectively, we exploit both the chain rule and Bayes' theorem to construct conditional transport (CT), which is constituted by both a forward component and a backward one. The forward CT is the expected cost of moving a source data point to a target one, with their joint distribution defined by the product of the source probability density function (PDF) and a source-dependent conditional distribution, which is related to the target PDF via Bayes' theorem. The backward CT is defined by reversing the direction. The CT cost can be approximated by replacing the source and target PDFs with their discrete empirical distributions supported on mini-batches, making it amenable to implicit distributions and stochastic gradient descent-based optimization. When applied to train a generative model, CT is shown to strike a good balance between mode-covering and mode-seeking behaviors and strongly resist mode collapse. On a wide variety of benchmark datasets for generative modeling, substituting the default statistical distance of an existing generative adversarial network with CT is shown to consistently improve the performance. PyTorch code is provided.

Fairness in image restoration tasks is the desire to treat different sub-groups of images equally well. Existing definitions of fairness in image restoration are highly restrictive. They consider a reconstruction to be a correct outcome for a group (e.g., women) only if it falls within the group's set of ground truth images (e.g., natural images of women); otherwise, it is considered entirely incorrect. Consequently, such definitions are prone to controversy, as errors in image restoration can manifest in various ways. In this work we offer an alternative approach towards fairness in image restoration, by considering the Group Perceptual Index (GPI), which we define as the statistical distance between the distribution of the group's ground truth images and the distribution of their reconstructions. We assess the fairness of an algorithm by comparing the GPI of different groups, and say that it achieves perfect Perceptual Fairness (PF) if the GPIs of all groups are identical. We motivate and theoretically study our new notion of fairness, draw its connection to previous ones, and demonstrate its utility on state-of-the-art face image super-resolution algorithms.

Assessing the fidelity and diversity of the generative model is a difficult but important issue for technological advancement. So, recent papers have introduced k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) based precision-recall metrics to break down the statistical distance into fidelity and diversity. While they provide an intuitive method, we thoroughly analyze these metrics and identify oversimplified assumptions and undesirable properties of kNN that result in unreliable evaluation, such as susceptibility to outliers and insensitivity to distributional changes. Thus, we propose novel metrics, P-precision and P-recall (PP\&PR), based on a probabilistic approach that address the problems. Through extensive investigations on toy experiments and state-of-the-art generative models, we show that our PP\&PR provide more reliable estimates for comparing fidelity and diversity than the existing metrics. The codes are available at https://github.com/kdst-team/Probablistic_precision_recall.

The success of long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks in language processing is typically attributed to their ability to capture long-distance statistical regularities. Linguistic regularities are often sensitive to syntactic structure; can such dependencies be captured by LSTMs, which do not have explicit structural representations? We begin addressing this question using number agreement in English subject-verb dependencies. We probe the architecture's grammatical competence both using training objectives with an explicit grammatical target (number prediction, grammaticality judgments) and using language models. In the strongly supervised settings, the LSTM achieved very high overall accuracy (less than 1% errors), but errors increased when sequential and structural information conflicted. The frequency of such errors rose sharply in the language-modeling setting. We conclude that LSTMs can capture a non-trivial amount of grammatical structure given targeted supervision, but stronger architectures may be required to further reduce errors; furthermore, the language modeling signal is insufficient for capturing syntax-sensitive dependencies, and should be supplemented with more direct supervision if such dependencies need to be captured.

In high dimension, low sample size (HDLSS) settings, classifiers based on Euclidean distances like the nearest neighbor classifier and the average distance classifier perform quite poorly if differences between locations of the underlying populations get masked by scale differences. To rectify this problem, several modifications of these classifiers have been proposed in the literature. However, existing methods are confined to location and scale differences only, and often fail to discriminate among populations differing outside of the first two moments. In this article, we propose some simple transformations of these classifiers resulting into improved performance even when the underlying populations have the same location and scale. We further propose a generalization of these classifiers based on the idea of grouping of variables. The high-dimensional behavior of the proposed classifiers is studied theoretically. Numerical experiments with a variety of simulated examples as well as an extensive analysis of real data sets exhibit advantages of the proposed methods.

Computing the optimal transport distance between statistical distributions is a fundamental task in machine learning. One remarkable recent advancement is entropic regularization and the Sinkhorn algorithm, which utilizes only matrix scaling and guarantees an approximated solution with near-linear runtime. Despite the success of the Sinkhorn algorithm, its runtime may still be slow due to the potentially large number of iterations needed for convergence. To achieve possibly super-exponential convergence, we present Sinkhorn-Newton-Sparse (SNS), an extension to the Sinkhorn algorithm, by introducing early stopping for the matrix scaling steps and a second stage featuring a Newton-type subroutine. Adopting the variational viewpoint that the Sinkhorn algorithm maximizes a concave Lyapunov potential, we offer the insight that the Hessian matrix of the potential function is approximately sparse. Sparsification of the Hessian results in a fast O(n^2) per-iteration complexity, the same as the Sinkhorn algorithm. In terms of total iteration count, we observe that the SNS algorithm converges orders of magnitude faster across a wide range of practical cases, including optimal transportation between empirical distributions and calculating the Wasserstein W_1, W_2 distance of discretized densities. The empirical performance is corroborated by a rigorous bound on the approximate sparsity of the Hessian matrix.

To characterize the location (mean, median) of a set of graphs, one needs a notion of centrality that is adapted to metric spaces, since graph sets are not Euclidean spaces. A standard approach is to consider the Frechet mean. In this work, we equip a set of graphs with the pseudometric defined by the norm between the eigenvalues of their respective adjacency matrix. Unlike the edit distance, this pseudometric reveals structural changes at multiple scales, and is well adapted to studying various statistical problems for graph-valued data. We describe an algorithm to compute an approximation to the sample Frechet mean of a set of undirected unweighted graphs with a fixed size using this pseudometric.

The rapid deployment of AI systems in high-stakes domains, including those classified as high-risk under the The EU AI Act (Regulation (EU) 2024/1689), has intensified the need for reliable compliance auditing. For binary classifiers, regulatory risk assessment often relies on global fairness metrics such as the Disparate Impact ratio, widely used to evaluate potential discrimination. In typical auditing settings, the auditee provides a subset of its dataset to an auditor, while a supervisory authority may verify whether this subset is representative of the full underlying distribution. In this work, we investigate to what extent a malicious auditee can construct a fairness-compliant yet representative-looking sample from a non-compliant original distribution, thereby creating an illusion of fairness. We formalize this problem as a constrained distributional projection task and introduce mathematically grounded manipulation strategies based on entropic and optimal transport projections. These constructions characterize the minimal distributional shift required to satisfy fairness constraints. To counter such attacks, we formalize representativeness through distributional distance based statistical tests and systematically evaluate their ability to detect manipulated samples. Our analysis highlights the conditions under which fairness manipulation can remain statistically undetected and provides practical guidelines for strengthening supervisory verification. We validate our theoretical findings through experiments on standard tabular datasets for bias detection. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/ValentinLafargue/Inspection.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

Distance correlation is a novel class of multivariate dependence measure, taking positive values between 0 and 1, and applicable to random vectors of arbitrary dimensions, not necessarily equal. It offers several advantages over the well-known Pearson correlation coefficient, the most important is that distance correlation equals zero if and only if the random vectors are independent. There are two different estimators of the distance correlation available in the literature. The first one, proposed by Székely et al. (2007), is based on an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the distance covariance which turns out to be a V-statistic. The second one builds on an unbiased estimator of the distance covariance proposed in Székely et al. (2014), proved to be an U-statistic by Székely and Huo (2016). This study evaluates their efficiency (mean squared error) and compares computational times for both methods under different dependence structures. Under conditions of independence or near-independence, the V-estimates are biased, while the U-estimator frequently cannot be computed due to negative values. To address this challenge, a convex linear combination of the former estimators is proposed and studied, yielding good results regardless of the level of dependence.

We consider a number of graph kernels and proximity measures including commute time kernel, regularized Laplacian kernel, heat kernel, exponential diffusion kernel (also called "communicability"), etc., and the corresponding distances as applied to clustering nodes in random graphs and several well-known datasets. The model of generating random graphs involves edge probabilities for the pairs of nodes that belong to the same class or different predefined classes of nodes. It turns out that in most cases, logarithmic measures (i.e., measures resulting after taking logarithm of the proximities) perform better while distinguishing underlying classes than the "plain" measures. A comparison in terms of reject curves of inter-class and intra-class distances confirms this conclusion. A similar conclusion can be made for several well-known datasets. A possible origin of this effect is that most kernels have a multiplicative nature, while the nature of distances used in cluster algorithms is an additive one (cf. the triangle inequality). The logarithmic transformation is a tool to transform the first nature to the second one. Moreover, some distances corresponding to the logarithmic measures possess a meaningful cutpoint additivity property. In our experiments, the leader is usually the logarithmic Communicability measure. However, we indicate some more complicated cases in which other measures, typically, Communicability and plain Walk, can be the winners.

An appropriate distance metric is crucial for categorical data clustering, as the distance between categorical data cannot be directly calculated. However, the distances between attribute values usually vary in different clusters induced by their different distributions, which has not been taken into account, thus leading to unreasonable distance measurement. Therefore, we propose a cluster-customized distance metric for categorical data clustering, which can competitively update distances based on different distributions of attributes in each cluster. In addition, we extend the proposed distance metric to the mixed data that contains both numerical and categorical attributes. Experiments demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method, i.e., achieving an average ranking of around first in fourteen datasets. The source code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/CADM-47D8

This paper presents algorithms for hierarchical, agglomerative clustering which perform most efficiently in the general-purpose setup that is given in modern standard software. Requirements are: (1) the input data is given by pairwise dissimilarities between data points, but extensions to vector data are also discussed (2) the output is a "stepwise dendrogram", a data structure which is shared by all implementations in current standard software. We present algorithms (old and new) which perform clustering in this setting efficiently, both in an asymptotic worst-case analysis and from a practical point of view. The main contributions of this paper are: (1) We present a new algorithm which is suitable for any distance update scheme and performs significantly better than the existing algorithms. (2) We prove the correctness of two algorithms by Rohlf and Murtagh, which is necessary in each case for different reasons. (3) We give well-founded recommendations for the best current algorithms for the various agglomerative clustering schemes.

Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum distance estimation, generalised Bayesian inference, and within the nonparametric learning framework. The MMD is commonly estimated at a root-m rate, where m is the number of simulated samples. This can lead to significant computational challenges since a large m is required to obtain an accurate estimate, which is crucial for parameter estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for the MMD with significantly improved sample complexity. The estimator is particularly well suited for computationally expensive smooth simulators with low- to mid-dimensional inputs. This claim is supported through both theoretical results and an extensive simulation study on benchmark simulators.

While modern Text-to-Speech (TTS) systems can produce speech rated highly in terms of subjective evaluation, the distance between real and synthetic speech distributions remains understudied, where we use the term distribution to mean the sample space of all possible real speech recordings from a given set of speakers; or of the synthetic samples that could be generated for the same set of speakers. We evaluate the distance of real and synthetic speech distributions along the dimensions of the acoustic environment, speaker characteristics and prosody using a range of speech processing measures and the respective Wasserstein distances of their distributions. We reduce these distribution distances along said dimensions by providing utterance-level information derived from the measures to the model and show they can be generated at inference time. The improvements to the dimensions translate to overall distribution distance reduction approximated using Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) by evaluating the fitness of the synthetic data as training data.

We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab

Metric space magnitude, an active field of research in algebraic topology, is a scalar quantity that summarizes the effective number of distinct points that live in a general metric space. The {\em weighting vector} is a closely-related concept that captures, in a nontrivial way, much of the underlying geometry of the original metric space. Recent work has demonstrated that when the metric space is Euclidean, the weighting vector serves as an effective tool for boundary detection. We recast this result and show the weighting vector may be viewed as a solution to a kernelized SVM. As one consequence, we apply this new insight to the task of outlier detection, and we demonstrate performance that is competitive or exceeds performance of state-of-the-art techniques on benchmark data sets. Under mild assumptions, we show the weighting vector, which has computational cost of matrix inversion, can be efficiently approximated in linear time. We show how nearest neighbor methods can approximate solutions to the minimization problems defined by SVMs.

Metric space magnitude, an active subject of research in algebraic topology, originally arose in the context of biology, where it was used to represent the effective number of distinct species in an environment. In a more general setting, the magnitude of a metric space is a real number that aims to quantify the effective number of distinct points in the space. The contribution of each point to a metric space's global magnitude, which is encoded by the {\em weighting vector}, captures much of the underlying geometry of the original metric space. Surprisingly, when the metric space is Euclidean, the weighting vector also serves as an effective tool for boundary detection. This allows the weighting vector to serve as the foundation of novel algorithms for classic machine learning tasks such as classification, outlier detection and active learning. We demonstrate, using experiments and comparisons on classic benchmark datasets, the promise of the proposed magnitude and weighting vector-based approaches.

We study the relationship between vocabulary size and text length in a corpus of 75 literary works in English, authored by six writers, distinguishing between the contributions of three grammatical classes (or ``tags,'' namely, {\it nouns}, {\it verbs}, and {\it others}), and analyze the progressive appearance of new words of each tag along each individual text. While the power-law relation prescribed by Heaps' law is satisfactorily fulfilled by total vocabulary sizes and text lengths, the appearance of new words in each text is on the whole well described by the average of random shufflings of the text, which does not obey a power law. Deviations from this average, however, are statistically significant and show a systematic trend across the corpus. Specifically, they reveal that the appearance of new words along each text is predominantly retarded with respect to the average of random shufflings. Moreover, different tags are shown to add systematically distinct contributions to this tendency, with {\it verbs} and {\it others} being respectively more and less retarded than the mean trend, and {\it nouns} following instead this overall mean. These statistical systematicities are likely to point to the existence of linguistically relevant information stored in the different variants of Heaps' law, a feature that is still in need of extensive assessment.

We introduce a principled way of computing the Wasserstein distance between two distributions in a federated manner. Namely, we show how to estimate the Wasserstein distance between two samples stored and kept on different devices/clients whilst a central entity/server orchestrates the computations (again, without having access to the samples). To achieve this feat, we take advantage of the geometric properties of the Wasserstein distance -- in particular, the triangle inequality -- and that of the associated {\em geodesics}: our algorithm, FedWad (for Federated Wasserstein Distance), iteratively approximates the Wasserstein distance by manipulating and exchanging distributions from the space of geodesics in lieu of the input samples. In addition to establishing the convergence properties of FedWad, we provide empirical results on federated coresets and federate optimal transport dataset distance, that we respectively exploit for building a novel federated model and for boosting performance of popular federated learning algorithms.

Given a database of bit strings A_1,ldots,A_min {0,1}^n, a fundamental data structure task is to estimate the distances between a given query Bin {0,1}^n with all the strings in the database. In addition, one might further want to ensure the integrity of the database by releasing these distance statistics in a secure manner. In this work, we propose differentially private (DP) data structures for this type of tasks, with a focus on Hamming and edit distance. On top of the strong privacy guarantees, our data structures are also time- and space-efficient. In particular, our data structure is epsilon-DP against any sequence of queries of arbitrary length, and for any query B such that the maximum distance to any string in the database is at most k, we output m distance estimates. Moreover, - For Hamming distance, our data structure answers any query in widetilde O(mk+n) time and each estimate deviates from the true distance by at most widetilde O(k/e^{epsilon/log k}); - For edit distance, our data structure answers any query in widetilde O(mk^2+n) time and each estimate deviates from the true distance by at most widetilde O(k/e^{epsilon/(log k log n)}). For moderate k, both data structures support sublinear query operations. We obtain these results via a novel adaptation of the randomized response technique as a bit flipping procedure, applied to the sketched strings.

As the issue of robustness in AI systems becomes vital, statistical learning techniques that are reliable even in presence of partly contaminated data have to be developed. Preference data, in the form of (complete) rankings in the simplest situations, are no exception and the demand for appropriate concepts and tools is all the more pressing given that technologies fed by or producing this type of data (e.g. search engines, recommending systems) are now massively deployed. However, the lack of vector space structure for the set of rankings (i.e. the symmetric group S_n) and the complex nature of statistics considered in ranking data analysis make the formulation of robustness objectives in this domain challenging. In this paper, we introduce notions of robustness, together with dedicated statistical methods, for Consensus Ranking the flagship problem in ranking data analysis, aiming at summarizing a probability distribution on S_n by a median ranking. Precisely, we propose specific extensions of the popular concept of breakdown point, tailored to consensus ranking, and address the related computational issues. Beyond the theoretical contributions, the relevance of the approach proposed is supported by an experimental study.

English. This document aims to study the best algorithms to verify the belonging of a specific document to a related domain by comparing different methods for calculating the distance between two vectors. This study has been made possible with the help of the structures made available by the Apache Spark framework. Starting from the study illustrated in the publication "New frontier of textual classification: Big data and distributed calculus" by Massimiliano Morrelli et al., We wanted to carry out a study on the possible implementation of a solution capable of calculating the Similarity of a sentence using the distributed environment. Italiano. Il presente documento persegue l'obiettivo di studiare gli algoritmi migliori per verificare l'appartenenza di un determinato documento a un relativo dominio tramite un confronto di diversi metodi per il calcolo della distanza fra due vettori. Tale studio \`e stato condotto con l'ausilio delle strutture messe a disposizione dal framework Apache Spark. Partendo dallo studio illustrato nella pubblicazione "Nuova frontiera della classificazione testuale: Big data e calcolo distribuito" di Massimiliano Morrelli et al., si \`e voluto realizzare uno studio sulla possibile implementazione di una soluzione in grado di calcolare la Similarit\`a di una frase sfruttando l'ambiente distribuito.

Understanding geometric properties of natural language processing models' latent spaces allows the manipulation of these properties for improved performance on downstream tasks. One such property is the amount of data spread in a model's latent space, or how fully the available latent space is being used. In this work, we define data spread and demonstrate that the commonly used measures of data spread, Average Cosine Similarity and a partition function min/max ratio I(V), do not provide reliable metrics to compare the use of latent space across models. We propose and examine eight alternative measures of data spread, all but one of which improve over these current metrics when applied to seven synthetic data distributions. Of our proposed measures, we recommend one principal component-based measure and one entropy-based measure that provide reliable, relative measures of spread and can be used to compare models of different sizes and dimensionalities.

We introduce a flexible framework that produces high-quality almost-exact matches for causal inference. Most prior work in matching uses ad-hoc distance metrics, often leading to poor quality matches, particularly when there are irrelevant covariates. In this work, we learn an interpretable distance metric for matching, which leads to substantially higher quality matches. The learned distance metric stretches the covariate space according to each covariate's contribution to outcome prediction: this stretching means that mismatches on important covariates carry a larger penalty than mismatches on irrelevant covariates. Our ability to learn flexible distance metrics leads to matches that are interpretable and useful for the estimation of conditional average treatment effects.

We introduce a new approach to nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction in cases where both the predictor and the response are distributional data, modeled as members of a metric space. Our key step is to build universal kernels (cc-universal) on the metric spaces, which results in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces for the predictor and response that are rich enough to characterize the conditional independence that determines sufficient dimension reduction. For univariate distributions, we construct the universal kernel using the Wasserstein distance, while for multivariate distributions, we resort to the sliced Wasserstein distance. The sliced Wasserstein distance ensures that the metric space possesses similar topological properties to the Wasserstein space while also offering significant computation benefits. Numerical results based on synthetic data show that our method outperforms possible competing methods. The method is also applied to several data sets, including fertility and mortality data and Calgary temperature data.

We study the classic Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances problem: given a pattern P of length m and a text T of length n, both over a polynomial-size alphabet, compute the Hamming distance between P and T[i, ., . , i+m-1] for every shift i, under the standard Word-RAM model with Theta(log n)-bit words. - We provide an O(nm) time Las Vegas randomized algorithm for this problem, beating the decades-old O(n m log m) running time [Abrahamson, SICOMP 1987]. We also obtain a deterministic algorithm, with a slightly higher O(nm(log mloglog m)^{1/4}) running time. Our randomized algorithm extends to the k-bounded setting, with running time Obig(n+nk{m}big), removing all the extra logarithmic factors from earlier algorithms [Gawrychowski and Uzna\'{n}ski, ICALP 2018; Chan, Golan, Kociumaka, Kopelowitz and Porat, STOC 2020]. - For the (1+epsilon)-approximate version of Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances, we give an O(epsilon^{-0.93}n) time Monte Carlo randomized algorithm, beating the previous O(epsilon^{-1}n) running time [Kopelowitz and Porat, FOCS 2015; Kopelowitz and Porat, SOSA 2018]. Our approximation algorithm exploits a connection with 3SUM, and uses a combination of Fredman's trick, equality matrix product, and random sampling; in particular, we obtain new results on approximate counting versions of 3SUM and Exact Triangle, which may be of independent interest. Our exact algorithms use a novel combination of hashing, bit-packed FFT, and recursion; in particular, we obtain a faster algorithm for computing the sumset of two integer sets, in the regime when the universe size is close to quadratic in the number of elements. We also prove a fine-grained equivalence between the exact Text-to-Pattern Hamming Distances problem and a range-restricted, counting version of 3SUM.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) is one of the most used ML classifiers. However, if we observe closely, standard distance-weighted KNN and relative variants assume all 'k' neighbors are equally reliable. In heterogeneous feature space, this becomes a limitation that hinders reliability in predicting true levels of the observation. We propose DW-KNN (Double Weighted KNN), a transparent and robust variant that integrates exponential distance with neighbor validity. This enables instance-level interpretability, suppresses noisy or mislabeled samples, and reduces hyperparameter sensitivity. Comprehensive evaluation on 9 data-sets helps to demonstrate that DW-KNN achieves 0.8988 accuracy on average. It ranks 2nd among six methods and within 0.2% of the best-performing Ensemble KNN. It also exhibits the lowest cross-validation variance (0.0156), indicating reliable prediction stability. Statistical significance test confirmed (p < 0.001) improvement over compactness weighted KNN (+4.09\%) and Kernel weighted KNN (+1.13\%). The method provides a simple yet effective alternative to complex adaptive schemes, particularly valuable for high-stakes applications requiring explainable predictions.

Federated learning (FL) has been a promising approach in the field of medical imaging in recent years. A critical problem in FL, specifically in medical scenarios is to have a more accurate shared model which is robust to noisy and out-of distribution clients. In this work, we tackle the problem of statistical heterogeneity in data for FL which is highly plausible in medical data where for example the data comes from different sites with different scanner settings. We propose IDA (Inverse Distance Aggregation), a novel adaptive weighting approach for clients based on meta-information which handles unbalanced and non-iid data. We extensively analyze and evaluate our method against the well-known FL approach, Federated Averaging as a baseline.

When two different parties use the same learning rule on their own data, how can we test whether the distributions of the two outcomes are similar? In this paper, we study the similarity of outcomes of learning rules through the lens of the Total Variation (TV) distance of distributions. We say that a learning rule is TV indistinguishable if the expected TV distance between the posterior distributions of its outputs, executed on two training data sets drawn independently from the same distribution, is small. We first investigate the learnability of hypothesis classes using TV indistinguishable learners. Our main results are information-theoretic equivalences between TV indistinguishability and existing algorithmic stability notions such as replicability and approximate differential privacy. Then, we provide statistical amplification and boosting algorithms for TV indistinguishable learners.

Learning signed distance functions (SDFs) from 3D point clouds is an important task in 3D computer vision. However, without ground truth signed distances, point normals or clean point clouds, current methods still struggle from learning SDFs from noisy point clouds. To overcome this challenge, we propose to learn SDFs via a noise to noise mapping, which does not require any clean point cloud or ground truth supervision for training. Our novelty lies in the noise to noise mapping which can infer a highly accurate SDF of a single object or scene from its multiple or even single noisy point cloud observations. Our novel learning manner is supported by modern Lidar systems which capture multiple noisy observations per second. We achieve this by a novel loss which enables statistical reasoning on point clouds and maintains geometric consistency although point clouds are irregular, unordered and have no point correspondence among noisy observations. Our evaluation under the widely used benchmarks demonstrates our superiority over the state-of-the-art methods in surface reconstruction, point cloud denoising and upsampling. Our code, data, and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/mabaorui/Noise2NoiseMapping/

Deep metric learning, which learns discriminative features to process image clustering and retrieval tasks, has attracted extensive attention in recent years. A number of deep metric learning methods, which ensure that similar examples are mapped close to each other and dissimilar examples are mapped farther apart, have been proposed to construct effective structures for loss functions and have shown promising results. In this paper, different from the approaches on learning the loss structures, we propose a robust SNR distance metric based on Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) for measuring the similarity of image pairs for deep metric learning. By exploring the properties of our SNR distance metric from the view of geometry space and statistical theory, we analyze the properties of our metric and show that it can preserve the semantic similarity between image pairs, which well justify its suitability for deep metric learning. Compared with Euclidean distance metric, our SNR distance metric can further jointly reduce the intra-class distances and enlarge the inter-class distances for learned features. Leveraging our SNR distance metric, we propose Deep SNR-based Metric Learning (DSML) to generate discriminative feature embeddings. By extensive experiments on three widely adopted benchmarks, including CARS196, CUB200-2011 and CIFAR10, our DSML has shown its superiority over other state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, we extend our SNR distance metric to deep hashing learning, and conduct experiments on two benchmarks, including CIFAR10 and NUS-WIDE, to demonstrate the effectiveness and generality of our SNR distance metric.

Data Drift is the phenomenon where the generating model behind the data changes over time. Due to data drift, any model built on the past training data becomes less relevant and inaccurate over time. Thus, detecting and controlling for data drift is critical in machine learning models. Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) is a machine learning model developed by Jeff Hawkins, inspired by how the human brain processes information. It is a biologically inspired model of memory that is similar in structure to the neocortex, and whose performance is claimed to be comparable to state of the art models in detecting anomalies in time series data. Another unique benefit of HTMs is its independence from training and testing cycle; all the learning takes place online with streaming data and no separate training and testing cycle is required. In sequential learning paradigm, Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) offers some unique benefit for online learning and inference. This paper proposes a novel hybrid framework combining HTM and SPRT for real-time data drift detection and anomaly identification. Unlike existing data drift methods, our approach eliminates frequent retraining and ensures low false positive rates. HTMs currently work with one dimensional or univariate data. In a second study, we also propose an application of HTM in multidimensional supervised scenario for anomaly detection by combining the outputs of multiple HTM columns, one for each dimension of the data, through a neural network. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms conventional drift detection techniques like the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, Wasserstein distance, and Population Stability Index (PSI) in terms of accuracy, adaptability, and computational efficiency. Our experiments also provide insights into optimizing hyperparameters for real-time deployment in domains such as Telecom.

Next generations of radio surveys are expected to identify tens of millions of new sources, and identifying and classifying their morphologies will require novel and more efficient methods. Self-Organising Maps (SOMs), a type of unsupervised machine learning, can be used to address this problem. We map 251,259 multi-Gaussian sources from Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey (RACS) onto a SOM with discrete neurons. Similarity metrics, such as Euclidean distances, can be used to identify the best-matching neuron or unit (BMU) for each input image. We establish a reliability threshold by visually inspecting a subset of input images and their corresponding BMU. We label the individual neurons based on observed morphologies and these labels are included in our value-added catalogue of RACS sources. Sources for which the Euclidean distance to their BMU is lesssim 5 (accounting for approximately 79% of sources) have an estimated >90% reliability for their SOM-derived morphological labels. This reliability falls to less than 70% at Euclidean distances gtrsim 7. Beyond this threshold it is unlikely that the morphological label will accurately describe a given source. Our catalogue of complex radio sources from RACS with their SOM-derived morphological labels from this work will be made publicly available.

Quantifying the similarity between a group of companies has proven to be useful for several purposes, including company benchmarking, fraud detection, and searching for investment opportunities. This exercise can be done using a variety of data sources, such as company activity data and financial data. However, ledger account data is widely available and is standardized to a large extent. Such ledger accounts within a financial statement can be represented by means of a tree, i.e. a special type of graph, representing both the values of the ledger accounts and the relationships between them. Given their broad availability and rich information content, financial statements form a prime data source based on which company similarities or distances could be computed. In this paper, we present a graph distance metric that enables one to compute the similarity between the financial statements of two companies. We conduct a comprehensive experimental study using real-world financial data to demonstrate the usefulness of our proposed distance metric. The experimental results show promising results on a number of use cases. This method may be useful for investors looking for investment opportunities, government officials attempting to identify fraudulent companies, and accountants looking to benchmark a group of companies based on their financial statements.

Given a set of dissimilarity measurements amongst data points, determining what metric representation is most "consistent" with the input measurements or the metric that best captures the relevant geometric features of the data is a key step in many machine learning algorithms. Existing methods are restricted to specific kinds of metrics or small problem sizes because of the large number of metric constraints in such problems. In this paper, we provide an active set algorithm, Project and Forget, that uses Bregman projections, to solve metric constrained problems with many (possibly exponentially) inequality constraints. We provide a theoretical analysis of Project and Forget and prove that our algorithm converges to the global optimal solution and that the L_2 distance of the current iterate to the optimal solution decays asymptotically at an exponential rate. We demonstrate that using our method we can solve large problem instances of three types of metric constrained problems: general weight correlation clustering, metric nearness, and metric learning; in each case, out-performing the state of the art methods with respect to CPU times and problem sizes.

We search for dark matter (DM) annihilating subhalos of the Milky Way halo among the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) unassociated sources. We construct, for the first time, a statistical model of the unassociated sources at latitudes above 10 degrees. The latter is built as a combination of both DM annihilation subhalos as well as Galactic and extragalactic astrophysical components. The astrophysical components are constructed based on distributions of associated sources, while the distribution of DM subhalos is derived from Monte Carlo simulations. In this model we take into account the differences in the distributions of associated and unassociated sources including both covariate and prior probability shifts (both being forms of ``dataset shifts''). Previous searches of DM subhalos were based on classify-and-count strategies, while the approach adopted in this work is based on quantification learning, which allows one to determine a well-defined statistical interpretation of the contribution of a population of DM subhalos to the unassociated Fermi-LAT sources. In the bb annihilation channel and for a range of DM masses from 10 GeV to 1 TeV, we don't find a significant contribution from DM subhalos and derive a statistical 95% confidence upper limit on the DM annihilation cross section in this channel. While the derived limits are consistent with previous classify-and-count approaches, our generative statistical model opens new avenues for population studies of Fermi-LAT sources and, more generally, for searches of anomalies on top of backgrounds in presence of statistical and systematic uncertainties.

We present an introduction to the field of statistical optimal transport, based on lectures given at École d'Été de Probabilités de Saint-Flour XLIX.

Priorities in multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) convey the relevance preference of one criterion over another, which is usually reflected by imposing the non-negativity and unit-sum constraints. The processing of such priorities is different than other unconstrained data, but this point is often neglected by researchers, which results in fallacious statistical analysis. This article studies three prevalent fallacies in group MCDM along with solutions based on compositional data analysis to avoid misusing statistical operations. First, we use a compositional approach to aggregate the priorities of a group of DMs and show that the outcome of the compositional analysis is identical to the normalized geometric mean, meaning that the arithmetic mean should be avoided. Furthermore, a new aggregation method is developed, which is a robust surrogate for the geometric mean. We also discuss the errors in computing measures of dispersion, including standard deviation and distance functions. Discussing the fallacies in computing the standard deviation, we provide a probabilistic criteria ranking by developing proper Bayesian tests, where we calculate the extent to which a criterion is more important than another. Finally, we explain the errors in computing the distance between priorities, and a clustering algorithm is specially tailored based on proper distance metrics.

Graph measures that express closeness or distance between nodes can be employed for graph nodes clustering using metric clustering algorithms. There are numerous measures applicable to this task, and which one performs better is an open question. We study the performance of 25 graph measures on generated graphs with different parameters. While usually measure comparisons are limited to general measure ranking on a particular dataset, we aim to explore the performance of various measures depending on graph features. Using an LFR graph generator, we create a dataset of 11780 graphs covering the whole LFR parameter space. For each graph, we assess the quality of clustering with k-means algorithm for each considered measure. Based on this, we determine the best measure for each area of the parameter space. We find that the parameter space consists of distinct zones where one particular measure is the best. We analyze the geometry of the resulting zones and describe it with simple criteria. Given particular graph parameters, this allows us to recommend a particular measure to use for clustering.

As unmanned aerial systems (UASs) increasingly integrate into the US national airspace system, there is an increasing need to characterize how commercial and recreational UASs may encounter each other. To inform the development and evaluation of safety critical technologies, we demonstrate a methodology to analytically calculate all potential relative geometries between different UAS operations performing inspection missions. This method is based on a previously demonstrated technique that leverages open source geospatial information to generate representative unmanned aircraft trajectories. Using open source data and parallel processing techniques, we performed trillions of calculations to estimate the relative horizontal distance between geospatial points across sixteen locations.

To compare autoregressive language models at scale, we propose using log-likelihood vectors computed on a predefined text set as model features. This approach has a solid theoretical basis: when treated as model coordinates, their squared Euclidean distance approximates the Kullback-Leibler divergence of text-generation probabilities. Our method is highly scalable, with computational cost growing linearly in both the number of models and text samples, and is easy to implement as the required features are derived from cross-entropy loss. Applying this method to over 1,000 language models, we constructed a "model map," providing a new perspective on large-scale model analysis.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

We present a new regular grid search algorithm for quick fixed-radius nearest-neighbor lookup developed in Python. This module indexes a set of k-dimensional points in a regular grid, with optional periodic conditions, providing a fast approach for nearest neighbors queries. In this first installment we provide three types of queries: bubble, shell and the nth-nearest; as well as three different metrics of interest in astronomy: the euclidean and two distance functions in spherical coordinates of varying precision, haversine and Vincenty; and the possibility of providing a custom distance function. This package results particularly useful for large datasets where a brute-force search turns impractical.

This paper revisits datasets and evaluation criteria for Symbolic Regression, a task of expressing given data using mathematical equations, specifically focused on its potential for scientific discovery. Focused on a set of formulas used in the existing datasets based on Feynman Lectures on Physics, we recreate 120 datasets to discuss the performance of symbolic regression for scientific discovery (SRSD). For each of the 120 SRSD datasets, we carefully review the properties of the formula and its variables to design reasonably realistic sampling range of values so that our new SRSD datasets can be used for evaluating the potential of SRSD such as whether or not an SR method can (re)discover physical laws from such datasets. As an evaluation metric, we also propose to use normalized edit distances between a predicted equation and the ground-truth equation trees. While existing metrics are either binary or errors between the target values and an SR model's predicted values for a given input, normalized edit distances evaluate a sort of similarity between the ground-truth and predicted equation trees. We have conducted experiments on our new SRSD datasets using five state-of-the-art SR methods in SRBench and a simple baseline based on a recent Transformer architecture. The results show that we provide a more realistic performance evaluation and open up a new machine learning-based approach for scientific discovery. Our datasets and code repository are publicly available.

Recently, finetuning a pretrained language model to capture the similarity between sentence embeddings has shown the state-of-the-art performance on the semantic textual similarity (STS) task. However, the absence of an interpretation method for the sentence similarity makes it difficult to explain the model output. In this work, we explicitly describe the sentence distance as the weighted sum of contextualized token distances on the basis of a transportation problem, and then present the optimal transport-based distance measure, named RCMD; it identifies and leverages semantically-aligned token pairs. In the end, we propose CLRCMD, a contrastive learning framework that optimizes RCMD of sentence pairs, which enhances the quality of sentence similarity and their interpretation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our learning framework outperforms other baselines on both STS and interpretable-STS benchmarks, indicating that it computes effective sentence similarity and also provides interpretation consistent with human judgement. The code and checkpoint are publicly available at https://github.com/sh0416/clrcmd.

In this work, we show that it is possible to extract significant amounts of alignment training data from a post-trained model -- useful to steer the model to improve certain capabilities such as long-context reasoning, safety, instruction following, and maths. While the majority of related work on memorisation has focused on measuring success of training data extraction through string matching, we argue that embedding models are better suited for our specific goals. Distances measured through a high quality embedding model can identify semantic similarities between strings that a different metric such as edit distance will struggle to capture. In fact, in our investigation, approximate string matching would have severely undercounted (by a conservative estimate of 10times) the amount of data that can be extracted due to trivial artifacts that deflate the metric. Interestingly, we find that models readily regurgitate training data that was used in post-training phases such as SFT or RL. We show that this data can be then used to train a base model, recovering a meaningful amount of the original performance. We believe our work exposes a possibly overlooked risk towards extracting alignment data. Finally, our work opens up an interesting discussion on the downstream effects of distillation practices: since models seem to be regurgitating aspects of their training set, distillation can therefore be thought of as indirectly training on the model's original dataset.

Null Hypothesis Significance Testing is the de facto tool for assessing effectiveness differences between Information Retrieval systems. Researchers use statistical tests to check whether those differences will generalise to online settings or are just due to the samples observed in the laboratory. Much work has been devoted to studying which test is the most reliable when comparing a pair of systems, but most of the IR real-world experiments involve more than two. In the multiple comparisons scenario, testing several systems simultaneously may inflate the errors committed by the tests. In this paper, we use a new approach to assess the reliability of multiple comparison procedures using simulated and real TREC data. Experiments show that Wilcoxon plus the Benjamini-Hochberg correction yields Type I error rates according to the significance level for typical sample sizes while being the best test in terms of statistical power.

In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.

A collection of robust Mahalanobis distances for multivariate outlier detection is proposed, based on the notion of shrinkage. Robust intensity and scaling factors are optimally estimated to define the shrinkage. Some properties are investigated, such as affine equivariance and breakdown value. The performance of the proposal is illustrated through the comparison to other techniques from the literature, in a simulation study and with a real dataset. The behavior when the underlying distribution is heavy-tailed or skewed, shows the appropriateness of the method when we deviate from the common assumption of normality. The resulting high correct detection rates and low false detection rates in the vast majority of cases, as well as the significantly smaller computation time shows the advantages of our proposal.

Image ranking is to rank images based on some known ranked images. In this paper, we propose an improved linear ordinal distance metric learning approach based on the linear distance metric learning model. By decomposing the distance metric A as L^TL, the problem can be cast as looking for a linear map between two sets of points in different spaces, meanwhile maintaining some data structures. The ordinal relation of the labels can be maintained via classical multidimensional scaling, a popular tool for dimension reduction in statistics. A least squares fitting term is then introduced to the cost function, which can also maintain the local data structure. The resulting model is an unconstrained problem, and can better fit the data structure. Extensive numerical results demonstrate the improvement of the new approach over the linear distance metric learning model both in speed and ranking performance.

The recent success of distributed word representations has led to an increased interest in analyzing the properties of their spatial distribution. Several studies have suggested that contextualized word embedding models do not isotropically project tokens into vector space. However, current methods designed to measure isotropy, such as average random cosine similarity and the partition score, have not been thoroughly analyzed and are not appropriate for measuring isotropy. We propose IsoScore: a novel tool that quantifies the degree to which a point cloud uniformly utilizes the ambient vector space. Using rigorously designed tests, we demonstrate that IsoScore is the only tool available in the literature that accurately measures how uniformly distributed variance is across dimensions in vector space. Additionally, we use IsoScore to challenge a number of recent conclusions in the NLP literature that have been derived using brittle metrics of isotropy. We caution future studies from using existing tools to measure isotropy in contextualized embedding space as resulting conclusions will be misleading or altogether inaccurate.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

Dirichlet Process mixture models (DPMM) in combination with Gaussian kernels have been an important modeling tool for numerous data domains arising from biological, physical, and social sciences. However, this versatility in applications does not extend to strong theoretical guarantees for the underlying parameter estimates, for which only a logarithmic rate is achieved. In this work, we (re)introduce and investigate a metric, named Orlicz-Wasserstein distance, in the study of the Bayesian contraction behavior for the parameters. We show that despite the overall slow convergence guarantees for all the parameters, posterior contraction for parameters happens at almost polynomial rates in outlier regions of the parameter space. Our theoretical results provide new insight in understanding the convergence behavior of parameters arising from various settings of hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models. In addition, we provide an algorithm to compute the metric by leveraging Sinkhorn divergences and validate our findings through a simulation study.

Quantifying similarity between neural representations -- e.g. hidden layer activation vectors -- is a perennial problem in deep learning and neuroscience research. Existing methods compare deterministic responses (e.g. artificial networks that lack stochastic layers) or averaged responses (e.g., trial-averaged firing rates in biological data). However, these measures of _deterministic_ representational similarity ignore the scale and geometric structure of noise, both of which play important roles in neural computation. To rectify this, we generalize previously proposed shape metrics (Williams et al. 2021) to quantify differences in _stochastic_ representations. These new distances satisfy the triangle inequality, and thus can be used as a rigorous basis for many supervised and unsupervised analyses. Leveraging this novel framework, we find that the stochastic geometries of neurobiological representations of oriented visual gratings and naturalistic scenes respectively resemble untrained and trained deep network representations. Further, we are able to more accurately predict certain network attributes (e.g. training hyperparameters) from its position in stochastic (versus deterministic) shape space.

A growing literature in computational neuroscience leverages gradient descent and learning algorithms that approximate it to study synaptic plasticity in the brain. However, the vast majority of this work ignores a critical underlying assumption: the choice of distance for synaptic changes - i.e. the geometry of synaptic plasticity. Gradient descent assumes that the distance is Euclidean, but many other distances are possible, and there is no reason that biology necessarily uses Euclidean geometry. Here, using the theoretical tools provided by mirror descent, we show that the distribution of synaptic weights will depend on the geometry of synaptic plasticity. We use these results to show that experimentally-observed log-normal weight distributions found in several brain areas are not consistent with standard gradient descent (i.e. a Euclidean geometry), but rather with non-Euclidean distances. Finally, we show that it should be possible to experimentally test for different synaptic geometries by comparing synaptic weight distributions before and after learning. Overall, our work shows that the current paradigm in theoretical work on synaptic plasticity that assumes Euclidean synaptic geometry may be misguided and that it should be possible to experimentally determine the true geometry of synaptic plasticity in the brain.

This book introduces the mathematical foundations and techniques that lead to the development and analysis of many of the algorithms that are used in machine learning. It starts with an introductory chapter that describes notation used throughout the book and serve at a reminder of basic concepts in calculus, linear algebra and probability and also introduces some measure theoretic terminology, which can be used as a reading guide for the sections that use these tools. The introductory chapters also provide background material on matrix analysis and optimization. The latter chapter provides theoretical support to many algorithms that are used in the book, including stochastic gradient descent, proximal methods, etc. After discussing basic concepts for statistical prediction, the book includes an introduction to reproducing kernel theory and Hilbert space techniques, which are used in many places, before addressing the description of various algorithms for supervised statistical learning, including linear methods, support vector machines, decision trees, boosting, or neural networks. The subject then switches to generative methods, starting with a chapter that presents sampling methods and an introduction to the theory of Markov chains. The following chapter describe the theory of graphical models, an introduction to variational methods for models with latent variables, and to deep-learning based generative models. The next chapters focus on unsupervised learning methods, for clustering, factor analysis and manifold learning. The final chapter of the book is theory-oriented and discusses concentration inequalities and generalization bounds.

Many learning algorithms such as kernel machines, nearest neighbors, clustering, or anomaly detection, are based on the concept of 'distance' or 'similarity'. Before similarities are used for training an actual machine learning model, we would like to verify that they are bound to meaningful patterns in the data. In this paper, we propose to make similarities interpretable by augmenting them with an explanation in terms of input features. We develop BiLRP, a scalable and theoretically founded method to systematically decompose similarity scores on pairs of input features. Our method can be expressed as a composition of LRP explanations, which were shown in previous works to scale to highly nonlinear functions. Through an extensive set of experiments, we demonstrate that BiLRP robustly explains complex similarity models, e.g. built on VGG-16 deep neural network features. Additionally, we apply our method to an open problem in digital humanities: detailed assessment of similarity between historical documents such as astronomical tables. Here again, BiLRP provides insight and brings verifiability into a highly engineered and problem-specific similarity model.

The sliced Wasserstein (SW) distances between two probability measures are defined as the expectation of the Wasserstein distance between two one-dimensional projections of the two measures. The randomness comes from a projecting direction that is used to project the two input measures to one dimension. Due to the intractability of the expectation, Monte Carlo integration is performed to estimate the value of the SW distance. Despite having various variants, there has been no prior work that improves the Monte Carlo estimation scheme for the SW distance in terms of controlling its variance. To bridge the literature on variance reduction and the literature on the SW distance, we propose computationally efficient control variates to reduce the variance of the empirical estimation of the SW distance. The key idea is to first find Gaussian approximations of projected one-dimensional measures, then we utilize the closed-form of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two Gaussian distributions to design the control variates. In particular, we propose using a lower bound and an upper bound of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two fitted Gaussians as two computationally efficient control variates. We empirically show that the proposed control variate estimators can help to reduce the variance considerably when comparing measures over images and point-clouds. Finally, we demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed control variate estimators in gradient flows to interpolate between two point-clouds and in deep generative modeling on standard image datasets, such as CIFAR10 and CelebA.

Histograms provide a powerful means of summarizing large data sets by representing their distribution in a compact, binned form. The HistogramTools R package enhances R built-in histogram functionality, offering advanced methods for manipulating and analyzing histograms, especially in large-scale data environments. Key features include the ability to serialize histograms using Protocol Buffers for distributed computing tasks, tools for merging and modifying histograms, and techniques for measuring and visualizing information loss in histogram representations. The package is particularly suited for environments utilizing MapReduce, where efficient storage and data sharing are critical. This paper presents various methods of histogram bin manipulation, distance measures, quantile approximation, and error estimation in cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) derived from histograms. Visualization techniques and efficient storage representations are also discussed alongside applications for large data processing and distributed computing tasks.

We propose a goodness-of-fit measure for probability densities modeling observations with varying dimensionality, such as text documents of differing lengths or variable-length sequences. The proposed measure is an instance of the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD), which has been used to construct goodness-of-fit tests for unnormalized densities. The KSD is defined by its Stein operator: current operators used in testing apply to fixed-dimensional spaces. As our main contribution, we extend the KSD to the variable-dimension setting by identifying appropriate Stein operators, and propose a novel KSD goodness-of-fit test. As with the previous variants, the proposed KSD does not require the density to be normalized, allowing the evaluation of a large class of models. Our test is shown to perform well in practice on discrete sequential data benchmarks.

A comparison of the distances to the Huanan Seafood Market of early Covid cases with known links to the market versus cases without known links shows results apparently incompatible with a location model lacking proximity ascertainment bias. The sign of the difference instead agrees with a model in which such ascertainment bias is large. In the presence of such bias inferences based on the clustering of case locations become unreliable.

How might one test the hypothesis that networks were sampled from the same distribution? Here, we compare two statistical tests that use subgraph counts to address this question. The first uses the empirical subgraph densities themselves as estimates of those of the underlying distribution. The second test uses a new approach that converts these subgraph densities into estimates of the graph cumulants of the distribution (without any increase in computational complexity). We demonstrate -- via theory, simulation, and application to real data -- the superior statistical power of using graph cumulants. In summary, when analyzing data using subgraph/motif densities, we suggest using the corresponding graph cumulants instead.

We show the existence of a Locality-Sensitive Hashing (LSH) family for the angular distance that yields an approximate Near Neighbor Search algorithm with the asymptotically optimal running time exponent. Unlike earlier algorithms with this property (e.g., Spherical LSH [Andoni, Indyk, Nguyen, Razenshteyn 2014], [Andoni, Razenshteyn 2015]), our algorithm is also practical, improving upon the well-studied hyperplane LSH [Charikar, 2002] in practice. We also introduce a multiprobe version of this algorithm, and conduct experimental evaluation on real and synthetic data sets. We complement the above positive results with a fine-grained lower bound for the quality of any LSH family for angular distance. Our lower bound implies that the above LSH family exhibits a trade-off between evaluation time and quality that is close to optimal for a natural class of LSH functions.

The development of data-dependent heuristics and representations for biological sequences that reflect their evolutionary distance is critical for large-scale biological research. However, popular machine learning approaches, based on continuous Euclidean spaces, have struggled with the discrete combinatorial formulation of the edit distance that models evolution and the hierarchical relationship that characterises real-world datasets. We present Neural Distance Embeddings (NeuroSEED), a general framework to embed sequences in geometric vector spaces, and illustrate the effectiveness of the hyperbolic space that captures the hierarchical structure and provides an average 22% reduction in embedding RMSE against the best competing geometry. The capacity of the framework and the significance of these improvements are then demonstrated devising supervised and unsupervised NeuroSEED approaches to multiple core tasks in bioinformatics. Benchmarked with common baselines, the proposed approaches display significant accuracy and/or runtime improvements on real-world datasets. As an example for hierarchical clustering, the proposed pretrained and from-scratch methods match the quality of competing baselines with 30x and 15x runtime reduction, respectively.

Many smart grid applications involve data mining, clustering, classification, identification, and anomaly detection, among others. These applications primarily depend on the measurement of similarity, which is the distance between different time series or subsequences of a time series. The commonly used time series distance measures, namely Euclidean Distance (ED) and Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), do not quantify the flexible nature of electricity usage data in terms of temporal dynamics. As a result, there is a need for a new distance measure that can quantify both the amplitude and temporal changes of electricity time series for smart grid applications, e.g., demand response and load profiling. This paper introduces a novel distance measure to compare electricity usage patterns. The method consists of two phases that quantify the effort required to reshape one time series into another, considering both amplitude and temporal changes. The proposed method is evaluated against ED and DTW using real-world data in three smart grid applications. Overall, the proposed measure outperforms ED and DTW in accurately identifying the best load scheduling strategy, anomalous days with irregular electricity usage, and determining electricity users' behind-the-meter (BTM) equipment.

When dealing with electro or magnetoencephalography records, many supervised prediction tasks are solved by working with covariance matrices to summarize the signals. Learning with these matrices requires using Riemanian geometry to account for their structure. In this paper, we propose a new method to deal with distributions of covariance matrices and demonstrate its computational efficiency on M/EEG multivariate time series. More specifically, we define a Sliced-Wasserstein distance between measures of symmetric positive definite matrices that comes with strong theoretical guarantees. Then, we take advantage of its properties and kernel methods to apply this distance to brain-age prediction from MEG data and compare it to state-of-the-art algorithms based on Riemannian geometry. Finally, we show that it is an efficient surrogate to the Wasserstein distance in domain adaptation for Brain Computer Interface applications.

In this paper we propose a highly efficient and very accurate deep learning method for estimating the propagation pathloss from a point x (transmitter location) to any point y on a planar domain. For applications such as user-cell site association and device-to-device link scheduling, an accurate knowledge of the pathloss function for all pairs of transmitter-receiver locations is very important. Commonly used statistical models approximate the pathloss as a decaying function of the distance between transmitter and receiver. However, in realistic propagation environments characterized by the presence of buildings, street canyons, and objects at different heights, such radial-symmetric functions yield very misleading results. In this paper we show that properly designed and trained deep neural networks are able to learn how to estimate the pathloss function, given an urban environment, in a very accurate and computationally efficient manner. Our proposed method, termed RadioUNet, learns from a physical simulation dataset, and generates pathloss estimations that are very close to the simulations, but are much faster to compute for real-time applications. Moreover, we propose methods for transferring what was learned from simulations to real-life. Numerical results show that our method significantly outperforms previously proposed methods.

Quantifying the similarity between two mathematical structures or datasets constitutes a particularly interesting and useful operation in several theoretical and applied problems. Aimed at this specific objective, the Jaccard index has been extensively used in the most diverse types of problems, also motivating some respective generalizations. The present work addresses further generalizations of this index, including its modification into a coincidence index capable of accounting also for the level of relative interiority between the two compared entities, as well as respective extensions for sets in continuous vector spaces, the generalization to multiset addition, densities and generic scalar fields, as well as a means to quantify the joint interdependence between two random variables. The also interesting possibility to take into account more than two sets has also been addressed, including the description of an index capable of quantifying the level of chaining between three structures. Several of the described and suggested eneralizations have been illustrated with respect to numeric case examples. It is also posited that these indices can play an important role while analyzing and integrating datasets in modeling approaches and pattern recognition activities, including as a measurement of clusters similarity or separation and as a resource for representing and analyzing complex networks.

While theoretically appealing, the application of the Wasserstein distance to large-scale machine learning problems has been hampered by its prohibitive computational cost. The sliced Wasserstein distance and its variants improve the computational efficiency through the random projection, yet they suffer from low accuracy if the number of projections is not sufficiently large, because the majority of projections result in trivially small values. In this work, we propose a new family of distance metrics, called augmented sliced Wasserstein distances (ASWDs), constructed by first mapping samples to higher-dimensional hypersurfaces parameterized by neural networks. It is derived from a key observation that (random) linear projections of samples residing on these hypersurfaces would translate to much more flexible nonlinear projections in the original sample space, so they can capture complex structures of the data distribution. We show that the hypersurfaces can be optimized by gradient ascent efficiently. We provide the condition under which the ASWD is a valid metric and show that this can be obtained by an injective neural network architecture. Numerical results demonstrate that the ASWD significantly outperforms other Wasserstein variants for both synthetic and real-world problems.

Construction of ambiguity set in robust optimization relies on the choice of divergences between probability distributions. In distribution learning, choosing appropriate probability distributions based on observed data is critical for approximating the true distribution. To improve the performance of machine learning models, there has recently been interest in designing objective functions based on Lp-Wasserstein distance rather than the classical Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. In this paper, we derive concentration and asymptotic results using Bregman divergence. We propose a novel asymmetric statistical divergence called Wasserstein-Bregman divergence as a generalization of L2-Wasserstein distance. We discuss how these results can be applied to the construction of ambiguity set in robust optimization.

Existing linguistic knowledge bases such as URIEL+ provide valuable geographic, genetic and typological distances for cross-lingual transfer but suffer from two key limitations. First, their one-size-fits-all vector representations are ill-suited to the diverse structures of linguistic data. Second, they lack a principled method for aggregating these signals into a single, comprehensive score. In this paper, we address these gaps by introducing a framework for type-matched language distances. We propose novel, structure-aware representations for each distance type: speaker-weighted distributions for geography, hyperbolic embeddings for genealogy, and a latent variables model for typology. We unify these signals into a robust, task-agnostic composite distance. Across multiple zero-shot transfer benchmarks, we demonstrate that our representations significantly improve transfer performance when the distance type is relevant to the task, while our composite distance yields gains in most tasks.

With increasingly more data and computation involved in their training, machine learning models constitute valuable intellectual property. This has spurred interest in model stealing, which is made more practical by advances in learning with partial, little, or no supervision. Existing defenses focus on inserting unique watermarks in a model's decision surface, but this is insufficient: the watermarks are not sampled from the training distribution and thus are not always preserved during model stealing. In this paper, we make the key observation that knowledge contained in the stolen model's training set is what is common to all stolen copies. The adversary's goal, irrespective of the attack employed, is always to extract this knowledge or its by-products. This gives the original model's owner a strong advantage over the adversary: model owners have access to the original training data. We thus introduce dataset inference, the process of identifying whether a suspected model copy has private knowledge from the original model's dataset, as a defense against model stealing. We develop an approach for dataset inference that combines statistical testing with the ability to estimate the distance of multiple data points to the decision boundary. Our experiments on CIFAR10, SVHN, CIFAR100 and ImageNet show that model owners can claim with confidence greater than 99% that their model (or dataset as a matter of fact) was stolen, despite only exposing 50 of the stolen model's training points. Dataset inference defends against state-of-the-art attacks even when the adversary is adaptive. Unlike prior work, it does not require retraining or overfitting the defended model.

An avenue for understanding cosmological galaxy formation is to compare morphometric parameters in observations and simulations of galaxy assembly. In this second paper of the ASymba: Asymmetries of HI in SIMBA Galaxies series, we measure atomic gas HI asymmetries in spatially-resolved detections from the untargetted WALLABY survey, and compare them to realizations of WALLABY-like mock samples from the SIMBA cosmological simulations. We develop a Scanline Tracing method to create mock galaxy HI datacubes which minimizes shot noise along the spectral dimension compared to particle-based methods, and therefore spurious asymmetry contributions. We compute 1D and 3D asymmetries for spatially-resolved WALLABY Pilot Survey detections, and find that the highest 3D asymmetries A3D>0.5 stem from interacting systems or detections with strong bridges or tails. We then construct a series of WALLABY-like mock realizations drawn from the SIMBA 50 Mpc simulation volume, and compare their asymmetry distributions. We find that the incidence of high A3D detections is higher in WALLABY than in the SIMBA mocks, but that difference is not statistically significant (p-value = 0.05). The statistical power of quantitative comparisons of asymmetries such as the one presented here will improve as the WALLABY survey progresses, and as simulation volumes and resolutions increase.

Short-term forecasting of vegetation dynamics is a key enabler for data-driven decision support in precision agriculture. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) forecasting from satellite observations, however, remains challenging due to sparse and irregular sampling caused by cloud masking, as well as the heterogeneous climatic conditions under which crops evolve. In this work, we propose a probabilistic forecasting framework for field-level NDVI prediction under sparse, irregular clear-sky acquisitions. The architecture separates the encoding of historical NDVI and meteorological observations from future exogenous covariates, fusing both representations for multi-step quantile prediction. To address irregular revisit patterns and horizon-dependent uncertainty, we introduce a temporal-distance weighted quantile loss that aligns the training objective with the effective forecasting horizon. In addition, we incorporate cumulative and extreme-weather feature engineering to capture delayed meteorological effects relevant to vegetation response. Experiments on European satellite data show that the proposed approach outperforms statistical, deep learning, and time-series baselines on both pointwise and probabilistic evaluation metrics. Ablation studies confirm that target history is the primary driver of performance, with meteorological covariates providing additional gains in the full multimodal setting. The code is available at https://github.com/arco-group/ndvi-forecasting.

Large-scale kernel ridge regression (KRR) is limited by the need to store a large kernel matrix K_t. To avoid storing the entire matrix K_t, Nystrom methods subsample a subset of columns of the kernel matrix, and efficiently find an approximate KRR solution on the reconstructed matrix. The chosen subsampling distribution in turn affects the statistical and computational tradeoffs. For KRR problems, recent works show that a sampling distribution proportional to the ridge leverage scores (RLSs) provides strong reconstruction guarantees for the approximation. While exact RLSs are as difficult to compute as a KRR solution, we may be able to approximate them well enough. In this paper, we study KRR problems in a sequential setting and introduce the INK-ESTIMATE algorithm, that incrementally computes the RLSs estimates. INK-ESTIMATE maintains a small sketch of K_t, that at each step is used to compute an intermediate estimate of the RLSs. First, our sketch update does not require access to previously seen columns, and therefore a single pass over the kernel matrix is sufficient. Second, the algorithm requires a fixed, small space budget to run dependent only on the effective dimension of the kernel matrix. Finally, our sketch provides strong approximation guarantees on the distance between the true kernel matrix and its approximation, and on the statistical risk of the approximate KRR solution at any time, because all our guarantees hold at any intermediate step.

We propose a theoretical framework demonstrating that popular Large Language Model (LLM) alignment methods, including Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) and alternatives, fundamentally function as divergence estimators between aligned (preferred or safe) and unaligned (less-preferred or harmful) distributions. This explains the separation phenomenon between safe and harmful prompts in the model hidden representation after alignment. Inspired by the theoretical results, we identify that some alignment methods are better than others in terms of separation and, introduce a new method, KLDO, and further demonstrate the implication of our theories. We advocate for compliance-refusal datasets over preference datasets to enhance safety alignment, supported by both theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence. Additionally, to quantify safety separation, we leverage a distance metric in the representation space and statistically validate its efficacy as a statistical significant indicator of LLM resilience against jailbreak attacks.

This paper introduces Interleaved Speech-Text Language Model (IST-LM) for streaming zero-shot Text-to-Speech (TTS). Unlike many previous approaches, IST-LM is directly trained on interleaved sequences of text and speech tokens with a fixed ratio, eliminating the need for additional efforts in duration prediction and grapheme-to-phoneme alignment. The ratio of text chunk size to speech chunk size is crucial for the performance of IST-LM. To explore this, we conducted a comprehensive series of statistical analyses on the training data and performed correlation analysis with the final performance, uncovering several key factors: 1) the distance between speech tokens and their corresponding text tokens, 2) the number of future text tokens accessible to each speech token, and 3) the frequency of speech tokens precedes their corresponding text tokens. Experimental results demonstrate how to achieve an optimal streaming TTS system without complicated engineering optimization, which has a limited gap with the non-streaming system. IST-LM is conceptually simple and empirically powerful, paving the way for streaming TTS with minimal overhead while largely maintaining performance, showcasing broad prospects coupled with real-time text stream from LLMs.

Mesh deformation plays a pivotal role in many 3D vision tasks including dynamic simulations, rendering, and reconstruction. However, defining an efficient discrepancy between predicted and target meshes remains an open problem. A prevalent approach in current deep learning is the set-based approach which measures the discrepancy between two surfaces by comparing two randomly sampled point-clouds from the two meshes with Chamfer pseudo-distance. Nevertheless, the set-based approach still has limitations such as lacking a theoretical guarantee for choosing the number of points in sampled point-clouds, and the pseudo-metricity and the quadratic complexity of the Chamfer divergence. To address these issues, we propose a novel metric for learning mesh deformation. The metric is defined by sliced Wasserstein distance on meshes represented as probability measures that generalize the set-based approach. By leveraging probability measure space, we gain flexibility in encoding meshes using diverse forms of probability measures, such as continuous, empirical, and discrete measures via varifold representation. After having encoded probability measures, we can compare meshes by using the sliced Wasserstein distance which is an effective optimal transport distance with linear computational complexity and can provide a fast statistical rate for approximating the surface of meshes. To the end, we employ a neural ordinary differential equation (ODE) to deform the input surface into the target shape by modeling the trajectories of the points on the surface. Our experiments on cortical surface reconstruction demonstrate that our approach surpasses other competing methods in multiple datasets and metrics.

Devising indicative evaluation metrics for the image generation task remains an open problem. The most widely used metric for measuring the similarity between real and generated images has been the Fr\'echet Inception Distance (FID) score. Because it does not differentiate the fidelity and diversity aspects of the generated images, recent papers have introduced variants of precision and recall metrics to diagnose those properties separately. In this paper, we show that even the latest version of the precision and recall metrics are not reliable yet. For example, they fail to detect the match between two identical distributions, they are not robust against outliers, and the evaluation hyperparameters are selected arbitrarily. We propose density and coverage metrics that solve the above issues. We analytically and experimentally show that density and coverage provide more interpretable and reliable signals for practitioners than the existing metrics. Code: https://github.com/clovaai/generative-evaluation-prdc.

AI coding agents operate in a paradox: they possess vast parametric knowledge yet cannot remember a conversation from an hour ago. Existing memory systems store text in vector databases with single-channel retrieval, require cloud LLMs for core operations, and implement none of the cognitive processes that make human memory effective. We present SuperLocalMemory V3.3 ("The Living Brain"), a local-first agent memory system implementing the full cognitive memory taxonomy with mathematical lifecycle dynamics. Building on the information-geometric foundations of V3.2 (arXiv:2603.14588), we introduce five contributions: (1) Fisher-Rao Quantization-Aware Distance (FRQAD) -- a new metric on the Gaussian statistical manifold achieving 100% precision at preferring high-fidelity embeddings over quantized ones (vs 85.6% for cosine), with zero prior art; (2) Ebbinghaus Adaptive Forgetting with lifecycle-aware quantization -- the first mathematical forgetting curve in local agent memory coupled to progressive embedding compression, achieving 6.7x discriminative power; (3) 7-channel cognitive retrieval spanning semantic, keyword, entity graph, temporal, spreading activation, consolidation, and Hopfield associative channels, achieving 70.4% on LoCoMo in zero-LLM Mode A; (4) memory parameterization implementing Long-Term Implicit memory via soft prompts; (5) zero-friction auto-cognitive pipeline automating the complete memory lifecycle. On LoCoMo, V3.3 achieves 70.4% in Mode A (zero-LLM), with +23.8pp on multi-hop and +12.7pp on adversarial. V3.2 achieved 74.8% Mode A and 87.7% Mode C; the 4.4pp gap reflects a deliberate architectural trade-off. SLM V3.3 is open source under the Elastic License 2.0, runs entirely on CPU, with over 5,000 monthly downloads.

This paper develops a hierarchical clustering algorithm for weighted projective spaces P_{q}, utilizing a Finsler metric d_F([z], [w]) and its rational analogue d_{F,Q}([z], [w]) to define distances that preserve the non-Euclidean geometry of these quotient manifolds. Defined via geodesic integrals of a scaling invariant Finsler norm weighted by the grades q = (q_0, q_1, dots, q_n), these metrics satisfy true metric properties including the triangle inequality, overcoming the limitations of the non-metric dissimilarity measure from prior work.

We develop tools for explicitly constructing categories enriched over generating data and that compose via ordinary scalar and matrix arithmetic arithmetic operations. We characterize meaningful size maps, weightings, and magnitude that reveal features analogous to outliers that these same notions have previously been shown to reveal in the context of metric spaces. Throughout, we provide examples of such "outlier detection" relevant to the analysis of computer programs, neural networks, cyber-physical systems, and networks of communications channels.

Asymmetrical distance structures (quasimetrics) are ubiquitous in our lives and are gaining more attention in machine learning applications. Imposing such quasimetric structures in model representations has been shown to improve many tasks, including reinforcement learning (RL) and causal relation learning. In this work, we present four desirable properties in such quasimetric models, and show how prior works fail at them. We propose Interval Quasimetric Embedding (IQE), which is designed to satisfy all four criteria. On three quasimetric learning experiments, IQEs show strong approximation and generalization abilities, leading to better performance and improved efficiency over prior methods. Project Page: https://www.tongzhouwang.info/interval_quasimetric_embedding Quasimetric Learning Code Package: https://www.github.com/quasimetric-learning/torch-quasimetric

Creating test collections for offline retrieval evaluation requires human effort to judge documents' relevance. This expensive activity motivated much work in developing methods for constructing benchmarks with fewer assessment costs. In this respect, adjudication methods actively decide both which documents and the order in which experts review them, in order to better exploit the assessment budget or to lower it. Researchers evaluate the quality of those methods by measuring the correlation between the known gold ranking of systems under the full collection and the observed ranking of systems under the lower-cost one. This traditional analysis ignores whether and how the low-cost judgements impact on the statistically significant differences among systems with respect to the full collection. We fill this void by proposing a novel methodology to evaluate how the low-cost adjudication methods preserve the pairwise significant differences between systems as the full collection. In other terms, while traditional approaches look for stability in answering the question "is system A better than system B?", our proposed approach looks for stability in answering the question "is system A significantly better than system B?", which is the ultimate questions researchers need to answer to guarantee the generalisability of their results. Among other results, we found that the best methods in terms of ranking of systems correlation do not always match those preserving statistical significance.

Magnitude of a finite metric space and the related notion of magnitude functions on metric spaces is an active area of research in algebraic topology. Magnitude originally arose in the context of biology, where it represents the number of effective species in an environment; when applied to a one-parameter family of metric spaces tX with scale parameter t, the magnitude captures much of the underlying geometry of the space. Prior work has mostly focussed on properties of magnitude in a global sense; in this paper we restrict the sets to finite subsets of Euclidean space and investigate its individual components. We give an explicit formula for the corrected inclusion-exclusion principle, and define a quantity associated with each point, called the moment which gives an intrinsic ordering to the points. We exploit this in order to form an algorithm which approximates the convex hull.

Many clustering schemes are defined by optimizing an objective function defined on the partitions of the underlying set of a finite metric space. In this paper, we construct a framework for studying what happens when we instead impose various structural conditions on the clustering schemes, under the general heading of functoriality. Functoriality refers to the idea that one should be able to compare the results of clustering algorithms as one varies the data set, for example by adding points or by applying functions to it. We show that within this framework, one can prove a theorems analogous to one of J. Kleinberg, in which for example one obtains an existence and uniqueness theorem instead of a non-existence result. We obtain a full classification of all clustering schemes satisfying a condition we refer to as excisiveness. The classification can be changed by varying the notion of maps of finite metric spaces. The conditions occur naturally when one considers clustering as the statistical version of the geometric notion of connected components. By varying the degree of functoriality that one requires from the schemes it is possible to construct richer families of clustering schemes that exhibit sensitivity to density.

Graph coarsening is a technique for solving large-scale graph problems by working on a smaller version of the original graph, and possibly interpolating the results back to the original graph. It has a long history in scientific computing and has recently gained popularity in machine learning, particularly in methods that preserve the graph spectrum. This work studies graph coarsening from a different perspective, developing a theory for preserving graph distances and proposing a method to achieve this. The geometric approach is useful when working with a collection of graphs, such as in graph classification and regression. In this study, we consider a graph as an element on a metric space equipped with the Gromov--Wasserstein (GW) distance, and bound the difference between the distance of two graphs and their coarsened versions. Minimizing this difference can be done using the popular weighted kernel K-means method, which improves existing spectrum-preserving methods with the proper choice of the kernel. The study includes a set of experiments to support the theory and method, including approximating the GW distance, preserving the graph spectrum, classifying graphs using spectral information, and performing regression using graph convolutional networks. Code is available at https://github.com/ychen-stat-ml/GW-Graph-Coarsening .

Anomaly detection methods can be very useful in identifying unusual or interesting patterns in data. A recently proposed conditional anomaly detection framework extends anomaly detection to the problem of identifying anomalous patterns on a subset of attributes in the data. The anomaly always depends (is conditioned) on the value of remaining attributes. The work presented in this paper focuses on instance-based methods for detecting conditional anomalies. The methods rely on the distance metric to identify examples in the dataset that are most critical for detecting the anomaly. We investigate various metrics and metric learning methods to optimize the performance of the instance-based anomaly detection methods. We show the benefits of the instance-based methods on two real-world detection problems: detection of unusual admission decisions for patients with the community-acquired pneumonia and detection of unusual orders of an HPF4 test that is used to confirm Heparin induced thrombocytopenia - a life-threatening condition caused by the Heparin therapy.

This paper introduces PhyloLM, a method adapting phylogenetic algorithms to Large Language Models (LLMs) to explore whether and how they relate to each other and to predict their performance characteristics. Our method calculates a phylogenetic distance metrics based on the similarity of LLMs' output. The resulting metric is then used to construct dendrograms, which satisfactorily capture known relationships across a set of 111 open-source and 45 closed models. Furthermore, our phylogenetic distance predicts performance in standard benchmarks, thus demonstrating its functional validity and paving the way for a time and cost-effective estimation of LLM capabilities. To sum up, by translating population genetic concepts to machine learning, we propose and validate a tool to evaluate LLM development, relationships and capabilities, even in the absence of transparent training information.

A lot of Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) research is of an empirical nature. Nevertheless, statistical significance testing (SST) is still not widely used. This endangers true progress, as seeming improvements over a baseline might be statistical flukes, leading follow-up research astray while wasting human and computational resources. Here, we provide an easy-to-use package containing different significance tests and utility functions specifically tailored towards research needs and usability.

Generative Artificial Intelligence is emerging as an important technology, promising to be transformative in many areas. At the same time, generative AI techniques are based on sampling from probabilistic models, and by default, they come with no guarantees about correctness, safety, fairness, or other properties. Statistical methods offer a promising potential approach to improve the reliability of generative AI techniques. In addition, statistical methods are also promising for improving the quality and efficiency of AI evaluation, as well as for designing interventions and experiments in AI. In this paper, we review some of the existing work on these topics, explaining both the general statistical techniques used, as well as their applications to generative AI. We also discuss limitations and potential future directions.

Offline evaluation of search systems depends on test collections. These benchmarks provide the researchers with a corpus of documents, topics and relevance judgements indicating which documents are relevant for each topic. While test collections are an integral part of Information Retrieval (IR) research, their creation involves significant efforts in manual annotation. Large language models (LLMs) are gaining much attention as tools for automatic relevance assessment. Recent research has shown that LLM-based assessments yield high systems ranking correlation with human-made judgements. These correlations are helpful in large-scale experiments but less informative if we want to focus on top-performing systems. Moreover, these correlations ignore whether and how LLM-based judgements impact the statistically significant differences among systems with respect to human assessments. In this work, we look at how LLM-generated judgements preserve ranking differences among top-performing systems and also how they preserve pairwise significance evaluation as human judgements. Our results show that LLM-based judgements are unfair at ranking top-performing systems. Moreover, we observe an exceedingly high rate of false positives regarding statistical differences. Our work represents a step forward in the evaluation of the reliability of using LLMs-based judgements for IR evaluation. We hope this will serve as a basis for other researchers to develop more reliable models for automatic relevance assessment.

Modern large language models (LLMs) such as GPT, Claude, and Gemini have transformed the way we learn, work, and communicate. Yet, their ability to produce highly human-like text raises serious concerns about misinformation and academic integrity, making it an urgent need for reliable algorithms to detect LLM-generated content. In this paper, we start by presenting a geometric approach to demystify rewrite-based detection algorithms, revealing their underlying rationale and demonstrating their generalization ability. Building on this insight, we introduce a novel rewrite-based detection algorithm that adaptively learns the distance between the original and rewritten text. Theoretically, we demonstrate that employing an adaptively learned distance function is more effective for detection than using a fixed distance. Empirically, we conduct extensive experiments with over 100 settings, and find that our approach demonstrates superior performance over baseline algorithms in the majority of scenarios. In particular, it achieves relative improvements from 57.8\% to 80.6\% over the strongest baseline across different target LLMs (e.g., GPT, Claude, and Gemini).

Bayesian Optimisation (BO) refers to a class of methods for global optimisation of a function f which is only accessible via point evaluations. It is typically used in settings where f is expensive to evaluate. A common use case for BO in machine learning is model selection, where it is not possible to analytically model the generalisation performance of a statistical model, and we resort to noisy and expensive training and validation procedures to choose the best model. Conventional BO methods have focused on Euclidean and categorical domains, which, in the context of model selection, only permits tuning scalar hyper-parameters of machine learning algorithms. However, with the surge of interest in deep learning, there is an increasing demand to tune neural network architectures. In this work, we develop NASBOT, a Gaussian process based BO framework for neural architecture search. To accomplish this, we develop a distance metric in the space of neural network architectures which can be computed efficiently via an optimal transport program. This distance might be of independent interest to the deep learning community as it may find applications outside of BO. We demonstrate that NASBOT outperforms other alternatives for architecture search in several cross validation based model selection tasks on multi-layer perceptrons and convolutional neural networks.

Most text-based information retrieval (IR) systems index objects by words or phrases. These discrete systems have been augmented by models that use embeddings to measure similarity in continuous space. But continuous-space models are typically used just to re-rank the top candidates. We consider the problem of end-to-end continuous retrieval, where standard approximate nearest neighbor (ANN) search replaces the usual discrete inverted index, and rely entirely on distances between learned embeddings. By training simple models specifically for retrieval, with an appropriate model architecture, we improve on a discrete baseline by 8% and 26% (MAP) on two similar-question retrieval tasks. We also discuss the problem of evaluation for retrieval systems, and show how to modify existing pairwise similarity datasets for this purpose.

The shadow of an abstract simplicial complex K with vertices in R^N is a subset of R^N defined as the union of the convex hulls of simplices of K. The Vietoris--Rips complex of a metric space (S,d) at scale β is an abstract simplicial complex whose each k-simplex corresponds to (k+1) points of S within diameter β. In case Ssubsetmathbb R^2 and d(a,b)=|a-b| the standard Euclidean metric, the natural shadow projection of the Vietoris--Rips complex is already proved by Chambers et al. to induce isomorphisms on π_0 and π_1. We extend the result beyond the standard Euclidean distance on Ssubsetmathbb R^N to a family of path-based metrics, d^varepsilon_{S}. From the pairwise Euclidean distances of points in S, we introduce a family (parametrized by varepsilon) of path-based Vietoris--Rips complexes R^varepsilon_β(S) for a scale β>0. If SsubsetR^2 is Hausdorff-close to a planar Euclidean graph G, we provide quantitative bounds on scales β,varepsilon for the shadow projection map of the Vietoris--Rips complex of (S,d^varepsilon_S) at scale β to induce π_1-isomorphism. This paper first studies the homotopy-type recovery of Gsubsetmathbb R^N using the abstract Vietoris--Rips complex of a Hausdorff-close sample S under the d^varepsilon_S metric. Then, our result on the π_1-isomorphism induced by the shadow projection lends itself to providing also a geometrically close embedding for the reconstruction. Based on the length of the shortest loop and large-scale distortion of the embedding of G, we quantify the choice of a suitable sample density varepsilon and a scale β at which the shadow of R^varepsilon_β(S) is homotopy-equivalent and Hausdorff-close to G.

Anomaly detection methods can be very useful in identifying unusual or interesting patterns in data. A recently proposed conditional anomaly detection framework extends anomaly detection to the problem of identifying anomalous patterns on a subset of attributes in the data. The anomaly always depends (is conditioned) on the value of remaining attributes. The work presented in this paper focuses on instance-based methods for detecting conditional anomalies. The methods depend heavily on the distance metric that lets us identify examples in the dataset that are most critical for detecting the anomaly. To optimize the performance of such methods we study and devise a metric learning method that learns the distance metric to reflect best the conditional anomaly pattern.

We present an accelerated algorithm for hierarchical density based clustering. Our new algorithm improves upon HDBSCAN*, which itself provided a significant qualitative improvement over the popular DBSCAN algorithm. The accelerated HDBSCAN* algorithm provides comparable performance to DBSCAN, while supporting variable density clusters, and eliminating the need for the difficult to tune distance scale parameter. This makes accelerated HDBSCAN* the default choice for density based clustering. Library available at: https://github.com/scikit-learn-contrib/hdbscan

Despite its importance to experimental design, statistical power (the probability that, given a real effect, an experiment will reject the null hypothesis) has largely been ignored by the NLP community. Underpowered experiments make it more difficult to discern the difference between statistical noise and meaningful model improvements, and increase the chances of exaggerated findings. By meta-analyzing a set of existing NLP papers and datasets, we characterize typical power for a variety of settings and conclude that underpowered experiments are common in the NLP literature. In particular, for several tasks in the popular GLUE benchmark, small test sets mean that most attempted comparisons to state of the art models will not be adequately powered. Similarly, based on reasonable assumptions, we find that the most typical experimental design for human rating studies will be underpowered to detect small model differences, of the sort that are frequently studied. For machine translation, we find that typical test sets of 2000 sentences have approximately 75% power to detect differences of 1 BLEU point. To improve the situation going forward, we give an overview of best practices for power analysis in NLP and release a series of notebooks to assist with future power analyses.

Geolocating images of a ground-level scene entails estimating the location on Earth where the picture was taken, in absence of GPS or other location metadata. Typically, methods are evaluated by measuring the Great Circle Distance (GCD) between a predicted location and ground truth. However, this measurement is limited because it only evaluates a single point, not estimates of regions or score heatmaps. This is especially important in applications to rural, wilderness and under-sampled areas, where finding the exact location may not be possible, and when used in aggregate systems that progressively narrow down locations. In this paper, we introduce a novel metric, Recall vs Area (RvA), which measures the accuracy of estimated distributions of locations. RvA treats image geolocation results similarly to document retrieval, measuring recall as a function of area: For a ranked list of (possibly non-contiguous) predicted regions, we measure the accumulated area required for the region to contain the ground truth coordinate. This produces a curve similar to a precision-recall curve, where "precision" is replaced by square kilometers area, allowing evaluation of performance for different downstream search area budgets. Following directly from this view of the problem, we then examine a simple ensembling approach to global-scale image geolocation, which incorporates information from multiple sources to help address domain shift, and can readily incorporate multiple models, attribute predictors, and data sources. We study its effectiveness by combining the geolocation models GeoEstimation and the current SOTA GeoCLIP, with attribute predictors based on ORNL LandScan and ESA-CCI Land Cover. We find significant improvements in image geolocation for areas that are under-represented in the training set, particularly non-urban areas, on both Im2GPS3k and Street View images.

We focus on the problem of species distribution modeling using global-scale presence-only data. Most previous studies have mapped the range of a given species using geographical and environmental features alone. To capture a stronger implicit relationship between species, we encode the taxonomic hierarchy of species using a large language model. This enables range mapping for any taxonomic rank and unseen species without additional supervision. Further, we propose a novel proximity-aware evaluation metric that enables evaluating species distribution models using any pixel-level representation of ground-truth species range map. The proposed metric penalizes the predictions of a model based on its proximity to the ground truth. We describe the effectiveness of our model by systematically evaluating on the task of species range prediction, zero-shot prediction and geo-feature regression against the state-of-the-art. Results show our model outperforms the strong baselines when trained with a variety of multi-label learning losses.

Galaxy Zoo: Clump Scout is a web-based citizen science project designed to identify and spatially locate giant star forming clumps in galaxies that were imaged by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Legacy Survey. We present a statistically driven software framework that is designed to aggregate two-dimensional annotations of clump locations provided by multiple independent Galaxy Zoo: Clump Scout volunteers and generate a consensus label that identifies the locations of probable clumps within each galaxy. The statistical model our framework is based on allows us to assign false-positive probabilities to each of the clumps we identify, to estimate the skill levels of each of the volunteers who contribute to Galaxy Zoo: Clump Scout and also to quantitatively assess the reliability of the consensus labels that are derived for each subject. We apply our framework to a dataset containing 3,561,454 two-dimensional points, which constitute 1,739,259 annotations of 85,286 distinct subjects provided by 20,999 volunteers. Using this dataset, we identify 128,100 potential clumps distributed among 44,126 galaxies. This dataset can be used to study the prevalence and demographics of giant star forming clumps in low-redshift galaxies. The code for our aggregation software framework is publicly available at: https://github.com/ou-astrophysics/BoxAggregator

Consider a random uniform sample of n points in a compact region A of Euclidean d-space, d geq 2, with a smooth or (when d=2) polygonal boundary. Fix k bf N. Let T_{n,k} be the threshold r at which the geometric graph on these n vertices with distance parameter r becomes k-connected. We show that if d=2 then n (pi/|A|) T_{n,1}^2 - log n is asymptotically standard Gumbel. For (d,k) neq (2,1), it is n (theta_d/|A|) T_{n,k}^d - (2-2/d) log n - (4-2k-2/d) log log n that converges in distribution to a nondegenerate limit, where theta_d is the volume of the unit ball. The limit is Gumbel with scale parameter 2 except when (d,k)=(2,2) where the limit is two component extreme value distributed. The different cases reflect the fact that boundary effects are more more important in some cases than others. We also give similar results for the largest k-nearest neighbour link U_{n,k} in the sample, and show T_{n,k}=U_{n,k} with high probability. We provide estimates on rates of convergence and give similar results for Poisson samples in A. Finally, we give similar results even for non-uniform samples, with a less explicit sequence of centring constants.

The magnitude of a finite metric space has recently emerged as a novel invariant quantity, allowing to measure the effective size of a metric space. Despite encouraging first results demonstrating the descriptive abilities of the magnitude, such as being able to detect the boundary of a metric space, the potential use cases of magnitude remain under-explored. In this work, we investigate the properties of the magnitude on images, an important data modality in many machine learning applications. By endowing each individual images with its own metric space, we are able to define the concept of magnitude on images and analyse the individual contribution of each pixel with the magnitude vector. In particular, we theoretically show that the previously known properties of boundary detection translate to edge detection abilities in images. Furthermore, we demonstrate practical use cases of magnitude for machine learning applications and propose a novel magnitude model that consists of a computationally efficient magnitude computation and a learnable metric. By doing so, we address the computational hurdle that used to make magnitude impractical for many applications and open the way for the adoption of magnitude in machine learning research.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

In this work, we derive sharp non-asymptotic deviation bounds for weighted sums of Dirichlet random variables. These bounds are based on a novel integral representation of the density of a weighted Dirichlet sum. This representation allows us to obtain a Gaussian-like approximation for the sum distribution using geometry and complex analysis methods. Our results generalize similar bounds for the Beta distribution obtained in the seminal paper Alfers and Dinges [1984]. Additionally, our results can be considered a sharp non-asymptotic version of the inverse of Sanov's theorem studied by Ganesh and O'Connell [1999] in the Bayesian setting. Based on these results, we derive new deviation bounds for the Dirichlet process posterior means with application to Bayesian bootstrap. Finally, we apply our estimates to the analysis of the Multinomial Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm in multi-armed bandits and significantly sharpen the existing regret bounds by making them independent of the size of the arms distribution support.

Finding meaningful representations and distances of hierarchical data is important in many fields. This paper presents a new method for hierarchical data embedding and distance. Our method relies on combining diffusion geometry, a central approach to manifold learning, and hyperbolic geometry. Specifically, using diffusion geometry, we build multi-scale densities on the data, aimed to reveal their hierarchical structure, and then embed them into a product of hyperbolic spaces. We show theoretically that our embedding and distance recover the underlying hierarchical structure. In addition, we demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method and its advantages compared to existing methods on graph embedding benchmarks and hierarchical datasets.

Ensuring the reliability and safety of automated decision-making is crucial. It is well-known that data distribution shifts in machine learning can produce unreliable outcomes. This paper proposes a new approach for measuring the reliability of predictions under distribution shifts. We analyze how the outputs of a trained neural network change using clustering to measure distances between outputs and class centroids. We propose this distance as a metric to evaluate the confidence of predictions under distribution shifts. We assign each prediction to a cluster with centroid representing the mean softmax output for all correct predictions of a given class. We then define a safety threshold for a class as the smallest distance from an incorrect prediction to the given class centroid. We evaluate the approach on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets using a Convolutional Neural Network and a Vision Transformer, respectively. The results show that our approach is consistent across these data sets and network models, and indicate that the proposed metric can offer an efficient way of determining when automated predictions are acceptable and when they should be deferred to human operators given a distribution shift.

A common statistical task lies in showing asymptotic normality of certain statistics. In many of these situations, classical textbook results on weak convergence theory suffice for the problem at hand. However, there are quite some scenarios where stronger results are needed in order to establish an asymptotic normal approximation uniformly over a family of probability measures. In this note we collect some results in this direction. We restrict ourselves to weak convergence in mathbb R^d with continuous limit measures.